Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8138…80ac sports 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$133 (+4%) realized +$93 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%27W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$422now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$171
14 days+$63
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$72
other 24% +$172
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +20.3% +8.8% 16% 16% -21.4%
≤30d 123 -1.3% -10.7% 22% 22% -18.1%
≤90d 123 -1.3% -10.7% 22% 22% -18.1%
all 123 -1.3% -10.7% 22% 22% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 22% -18.1%
10% -19.3% 22% -25.9%
15% -27.1% 21% -33.1%
20% -34.2% 18% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$19 · ×3.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$422
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses27 / 96
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions11
Markets (closed)123 / 134
History coverage14d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 62¢ 93¢ $80 $120 +$40 (+50%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 28¢ 36¢ $90 $114 +$24 (+27%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 22¢ $100 $70 −$30 (-30%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+20%)
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 2.5 Corners Under 26¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 Under 22¢ 16¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-30%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+44%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 19¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 26 $20 +$97 +474%
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 +$536 +5205%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $51 −$3 -6%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $61 +$26 +43%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 +$37 +180%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 +$78 +1521%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $103 −$11 -11%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $51 −$3 -7%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $3 +$70 +2279%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Saudi Arabia to win the second half? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Curaçao to win the second half? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $15 +$56 +365%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $31 +$44 +146%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 +$18 +60%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 19 $25 +$9 +34%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 +$26 +101%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $31 −$17 -55%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $56 −$55 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Haiti to win the second half? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Scotland to win the second half? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $5 59m
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 26¢ $31 1h
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $26 13h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 17¢ $20 20h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 38h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $10 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 3¢ $48 3d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 1¢ $46 4d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 1¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 1¢ $30 4d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 1¢ $48 4d
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $5 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $3 4d
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $15 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 15¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 1¢ $93 4d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 4d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 35¢ $20 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 32¢ $20 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 17¢ $15 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 12¢ $15 5d
Saudi Arabia to win the second half? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Curaçao to win the second half? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $30 5d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $422.14 · official $422.14 (match) · 175 history records