Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:30:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x8136…772c sports 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,252 (+12%) realized +$6,247 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%90W / 81L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$430est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$661now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$572
14 days−$1,045
30 days−$1,167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$2,499
other 26% +$3,323
world 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -49.3% -54.1% 29% 29% -51.5%
≤30d 16 -32.4% -38.9% 31% 31% -45.3%
≤90d 119 -37.6% -43.6% 34% 30% -1.8%
all 171 -8.9% -17.6% 53% 50% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 50% +1.1%
10% -25.5% 43% -8.6%
15% -32.7% 36% -17.4%
20% -39.3% 27% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$234 vs −$192 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$661
Realized+$6,247
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses90 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$430
Open positions5
Markets (closed)171 / 176
History coverage99d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 74¢ 77¢ $271 $283 +$11 (+4%)
Mexico leading at halftime? No 66¢ 64¢ $165 $161 −$4 (-2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 50¢ 50¢ $132 $131 −$1 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Under 37¢ 36¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 68¢ 68¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $18 +$19 +109%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $428 +$195 +46%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $70 −$69 -99%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 12 $127 −$125 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $153 −$151 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $441 −$432 -98%
Angola vs. Mauritania: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $181 −$179 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $503 −$497 -99%
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $111 −$109 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $331 +$312 +94%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $146 +$263 +180%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $91 −$89 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 01 $154 −$152 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 20 $29 +$44 +152%
Will CA Peñarol vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? May 20 $190 −$188 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 08 $392 −$385 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $1,360 +$621 +46%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 25 $800 +$1,164 +146%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 25 $1,440 +$543 +38%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs NIP (+1.5) Apr 25 $1,440 +$543 +38%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (+1.5) Apr 24 $304 −$298 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? Apr 24 $980 +$989 +101%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Apr 23 $1,115 +$663 +60%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 23 $920 +$1,048 +114%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a d Apr 23 $1,400 +$582 +42%
Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Supernova (+1.5) Apr 23 $648 −$635 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? Apr 23 $556 +$424 +76%
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Sentinels (+1.5) Apr 23 $580 −$568 -98%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 23 $1,000 +$970 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 23 $1,115 +$885 +79%
1H Spread: Pistons (-5.5) Apr 22 $995 −$980 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Apr 22 $1,500 −$1,489 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Apr 20 $78 +$40 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $81 +$81 +100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Apr 19 $154 −$154 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Apr 19 $840 +$660 +79%
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) Apr 19 $61 +$50 +82%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $1,120 +$880 +79%
Will New York City FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $795 −$795 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Apr 18 $553 −$553 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 18 $513 $0 -0%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) Apr 18 $942 +$492 +52%
Manchester United FC leading at halftime? Apr 18 $7 $0 -2%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 17 $1,600 +$388 +24%
Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP: O/U 2.5 Apr 15 $510 −$510 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Apr 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs MAGICOS (BO3) - CCT South America Challen Apr 12 $565 −$71 -13%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr Apr 12 $1,005 +$480 +48%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $1,380 +$620 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $134 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 68¢ $10 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 74¢ $274 1h
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY No 66¢ $167 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $80 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $70 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $18 5d
United States leading at halftime? BUY No 67¢ $41 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $9 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $153 5d
United States leading at halftime? BUY No 68¢ $86 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 34¢ $70 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $86 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $342 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 34¢ $70 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 34¢ $300 6d
Angola vs. Mauritania: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $181 12d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 62¢ $173 13d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 62¢ $66 13d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 62¢ $264 13d
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $55 13d
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $56 13d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner BUY Liquid 52¢ $129 14d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner BUY Liquid 50¢ $202 14d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 40¢ $91 16d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Sweden 66¢ $154 16d
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 16d
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $70 16d
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $73 16d
Will CA Peñarol vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $190 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $661.31 · official $661.31 (match) · 496 history records