Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:10:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8132…fe3c other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-4%) realized −$28 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$496now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$18
world 13% −$50
economics 13% $0
tech 7% +$2
sports 7% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -28.8% -35.6% 50% 50% -21.4%
≤30d 4 -28.8% -35.6% 50% 50% -21.4%
≤90d 4 -28.8% -35.6% 50% 50% -21.4%
all 4 -28.8% -35.6% 50% 50% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 50% -21.4%
10% -41.8% 50% -28.9%
15% -47.4% 50% -35.8%
20% -52.6% 0% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$50 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$496
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)4 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 97¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? No 98¢ 97¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 55¢ 46¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$19 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$47 +46%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $50 53m
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $52 54m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $51 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $51 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $50 1h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju BUY Yes 100¢ $51 1h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 16h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $51 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $51 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $52 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $496.04 · official $496.05 (match) · 17 history records