Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:00:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

81 0x8131…bad5 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$115 (+22%) realized +$107 · open +$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip

Net edge+7%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown11%max

Avg bet$87per market

Trades / day2.9pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+6.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+17.9%	+6.7%	80%	60%	+14.6%
≤30d	5	+17.9%	+6.7%	80%	60%	+14.6%
≤90d	5	+17.9%	+6.7%	80%	60%	+14.6%
all	5	+17.9%	+6.7%	80%	60%	+14.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+6.7%	60%	+14.6%
10%	-3.5%	60%	+3.7%
15%	-12.8%	20%	-6.4%
20%	-21.4%	0%	-15.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +27% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$31 vs −$12 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×9.94 per $1 lost it wins $9.94

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$108

Realized+$107

Unrealized+$8

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage3d

Avg bet$87

Trades / day2.9

Drawdown11%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)	Senegal	57¢	62¢	$100	$108	+$8 (+8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Jun 26	$84	+$29	+34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$50	+$5	+10%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	Jun 25	$41	−$12	-30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$143	+$47	+33%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$100	+$44	+44%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Senegal (-1.5)	BUY Senegal	57¢	$101	1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	BUY Netherlands	74¢	$84	20h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	SELL Yes	22¢	$28	21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	91¢	$50	22h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$41	22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	74¢	$43	45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$101	45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	69¢	$100	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.89 · official $107.89 (match) · 12 history records