Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:35:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x812e…8189
sports · 29 markets active 1h ago
8.5score
+$220 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$414 · open −$195
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$4,592
Realized+$414
Unrealized−$195
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions11
Markets (closed)18 / 29
History coverage17d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 11 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days+$130
14 days+$434
30 days+$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1,000 $1,077 +$77 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1,000 $991 −$9 (-1%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $400 $608 +$208 (+52%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $569 +$69 (+14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $474 −$26 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $451 −$49 (-10%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 64¢ 19¢ $651 $190 −$460 (-71%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 73¢ 74¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 42¢ 42¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 71¢ 62¢ $51 $44 −$7 (-13%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Liquid 42¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 38¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 TYLOO 44¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Heroic 64¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Sinners 56¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Elina Svitolina 30¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 MIBR 54¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $66 +$72 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $101 +$57 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 03 $10 +$4 +38%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $10 +$7 +70%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $11 +$12 +105%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $20 +$8 +42%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $20 +$15 +73%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $20 +$14 +67%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 03 $50 +$24 +48%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 03 $51 +$39 +78%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $41 −$40 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $499 +$462 +92%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $183 −$180 -98%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 May 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 70% +$163
sports 30% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 73¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $66 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $101 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $82 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $273 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 10d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Liquid 42¢ $20 10d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 57¢ $20 10d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY GamerLegion 67¢ $50 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 44¢ $10 10d
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Sinners 56¢ $20 10d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY B8 56¢ $51 10d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St BUY MIBR 43¢ $20 10d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY B8 58¢ $10 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Elina Svitolina 30¢ $10 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 12d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $514 12d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $514 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,027 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 12d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $309 12d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 44¢ $117 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $183 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $304 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $78 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +83.2% +65.8% 100% 100% +60.8%
≤30d 18 +4.4% -5.5% 61% 61% +22.8%
≤90d 18 +4.4% -5.5% 61% 61% +22.8%
all 18 +4.4% -5.5% 61% 61% +22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 61% +22.8%
10% -14.6% 61% +11.1%
15% -22.8% 61% +0.3%
20% -30.4% 44% -9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,591.87 · official $4,591.87 (match) · 63 history records