Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x812e…368c other 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 551d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$79 (-4%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate93%145W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$73
crypto 19% −$6
tech 12% +$2
world 10% +$4
sports 7% −$6
politics 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 21 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 77 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -8.8%
all 156 -5.6% -14.6% 93% 3% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 3% -13.1%
10% -22.7% 2% -21.5%
15% -30.2% 1% -29.0%
20% -37.0% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses145 / 11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)156 / 158
History coverage551d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 27 $149 +$1 +1%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $164 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $95 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Contro May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May? May 29 $4 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $98 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $94 +$4 +4%
Will Malta be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $94 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $93 $0 +0%
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $99 $0 +0%
Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $101 +$1 +1%
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 05 $56 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? May 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $100 in April? May 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $300 in April? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $460 end of April? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in April? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $20 end of April? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? May 04 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April meeti May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 04 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting? May 04 $4 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in April? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026 BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $149 35h
Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 44h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $164 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $10 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $95 27d
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? BUY No 99¢ $21 29d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 99¢ $95 30d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 31d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $94 40d
Will Malta be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY No 100¢ $94 42d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $93 44d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 44d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $2 44d
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 44d
Will Solana reach $140 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 46d
Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 99¢ $101 46d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $2 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 48d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 99¢ $2 48d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 49d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $4 49d
Will Solana reach $160 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 49d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 49d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $5 49d
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 49d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 49d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? BUY No 99¢ $3 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.38 · official $45.38 (match) · 364 history records