Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:31:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x812c…b81f
other · 156 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$567 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$562 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized−$562
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses79 / 72
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions5
Markets (closed)151 / 156
History coverage48d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 5 History 151 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$36
14 days−$256
30 days−$391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 32¢ 33¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $3 +$2 +64%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$22 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 −$4 -75%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $31 +$25 +82%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $46 −$15 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $20 +$10 +48%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Campbell's (CPB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $55 −$55 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $34 −$3 -7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $21 +$13 +64%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 06 $10 +$11 +104%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 05 $10 −$1 -12%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $86 −$32 -37%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $42 +$71 +171%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $33 −$30 -93%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $19 +$14 +75%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $25 −$6 -24%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $43 +$14 +32%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $42 +$18 +43%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $310 −$127 -41%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $96 +$24 +25%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $49 −$27 -55%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $38 +$44 +118%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 02 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $36 +$13 +37%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $16 +$4 +27%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $11 +$5 +44%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 01 $44 +$48 +108%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 30 $48 −$46 -96%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $91 +$58 +64%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 28 $45 −$4 -9%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 28 $53 +$91 +171%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $11 +$6 +50%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 27 $45 +$19 +42%
World Championships: Sweden vs. Slovakia May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 26 $48 −$2 -5%
World Championships: Hungary vs. Latvia May 26 $92 +$15 +16%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $75 −$39 -52%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $30 +$21 +69%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $99 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% −$807
sports 34% +$199
finance 9% −$98
world 3% +$99
politics 1% +$9
tech 1% −$4
weather 1% −$3
crypto 0% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 1h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $3 17h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 18h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 10¢ $1 18h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $5 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $51 34h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $7 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $24 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $30 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 4d
Will Campbell's (CPB) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 26¢ $5 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $16 4d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $8 5d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 81¢ $26 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 60¢ $21 6d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 6d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 6d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 42¢ $12 6d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 6d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 41¢ $23 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $36 7d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Jakub Mensik 23¢ $10 7d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 7d
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.8% -5.2% 50% 50% -18.8%
≤30d 88 -0.0% -9.6% 48% 48% -19.1%
≤90d 151 -1.4% -10.8% 52% 50% -16.8%
all 151 -1.4% -10.8% 52% 50% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 50% -16.8%
10% -19.3% 41% -24.8%
15% -27.1% 34% -32.1%
20% -34.2% 26% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.89 · official $49.89 (match) · 415 history records