Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:05:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x812b…14d0 crypto 365 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (121 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5,678 (-25%) realized −$5,673 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate63%226W / 134L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day121.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3,577now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$2,507
world 22% −$198
other 16% +$964
economics 3% −$277
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (121 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -6.6% -15.5% 33% 33% -10.7%
≤30d 360 -2.6% -11.9% 63% 43% -19.0%
≤90d 360 -2.6% -11.9% 63% 43% -19.0%
all 360 -2.6% -11.9% 63% 43% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover121.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 43% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 27% -26.7%
15% -28.0% 17% -33.8%
20% -35.1% 11% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$74 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$3,577
Realized−$5,673
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses226 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)360 / 365
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$63
Trades / day121.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 360 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 79¢ 92¢ $2,600 $3,005 +$405 (+16%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 98¢ 98¢ $270 $270 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $572 $163 −$409 (-71%)
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 67¢ $124 $107 −$17 (-14%)
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.7B? No 7¢ 13¢ $16 $33 +$16 (+99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $1,875 −$1,875 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 19 $1,289 +$2,956 +229%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $1,000 −$530 -53%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 18 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $341 −$341 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $635 −$278 -44%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $587 +$560 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 03 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 03 $85 +$229 +268%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 03 $320 −$320 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 03 $355 −$311 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 03 $70 +$15 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 03 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 03 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 03 $130 +$776 +598%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 03 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 03 $19 +$202 +1081%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 03 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 03 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 03 $266 −$266 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 03 $401 −$312 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 03 $83 +$25 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 03 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 03 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 03 $310 −$310 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 03 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$37 +1400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 03 $77 +$109 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 03 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 03 $88 +$39 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 03 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 03 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 03 $348 −$348 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 03 $277 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 03 $88 +$37 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 03 $84 +$13 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 03 $404 −$404 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 03 $320 −$320 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 03 $116 +$300 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 03 $88 +$24 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 03 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 03 $323 −$323 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $269 −$253 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 03 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 03 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 98¢ $270 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $2,600 44h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,304 4d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $96 4d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,246 4d
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $6 5d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $475 5d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 32¢ $470 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No 24¢ $5 5d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $257 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $60 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 8¢ $357 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 18¢ $4 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 15¢ $43 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 14¢ $29 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 14¢ $29 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 14¢ $55 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 14¢ $29 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,577.18 · official $3,577.46 (match) · 3500 history records