Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:33:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

81 0x812b…1e70 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$76 (-55%) realized −$78 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -70% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip

Net edge-73%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day2.6pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-73.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-70.3%	-73.1%	0%	0%	-77.2%
≤30d	3	-70.3%	-73.1%	0%	0%	-77.2%
≤90d	3	-70.3%	-73.1%	0%	0%	-77.2%
all	3	-70.3%	-73.1%	0%	0%	-77.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-73.1%	0%	-77.2%
10%	-75.7%	0%	-79.4%
15%	-78.0%	0%	-81.4%
20%	-80.2%	0%	-83.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -75% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -70% · $-wt -75% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$27 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$32

Realized−$78

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 3

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage2d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day2.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Morocco	31¢	33¢	$30	$32	+$2 (+6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$30	−$3	-11%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 18	$27	−$26	-98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	31¢	$31	1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	SELL Under	27¢	$27	1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	29¢	$30	1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$27	32h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$51	47h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.94 · official $31.94 (match) · 5 history records