Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x812a…ed81 crypto 73 markets active 6d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-7%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate63%46W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +8.3% -2.0% 100% 0% -2.0%
≤30d 73 -10.7% -19.2% 63% 53% -20.2%
≤90d 73 -10.7% -19.2% 63% 53% -20.2%
all 73 -10.7% -19.2% 63% 53% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 53% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 33% -27.9%
15% -34.0% 21% -34.8%
20% -40.5% 21% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses46 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -11%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 9d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $0 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $2 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $0 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $3 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $0 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records