Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:39:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8127…42ed crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$55 (-7%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.7% -12.9% 56% 11% -10.2%
≤30d 9 -3.7% -12.9% 56% 11% -10.2%
≤90d 14 -7.2% -16.0% 64% 21% -15.3%
all 14 -7.2% -16.0% 64% 21% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 21% -15.3%
10% -24.1% 0% -23.4%
15% -31.4% 0% -30.8%
20% -38.1% 0% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$16 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage72d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $109 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $57 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $58 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $46 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $47 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$13 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 16 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 15 $58 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 15 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 15 $45 +$5 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $55 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $56 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $57 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $53 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $52 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $57 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $57 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $58 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $62 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $62 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $61 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $61 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $58 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $59 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records