Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:17:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

81 0x8126…a72d other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$137 (+22%) realized +$140 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip

Net edge+35%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$207per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+40.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+55.6%	+40.8%	100%	100%	+40.8%
≤30d	1	+55.6%	+40.8%	100%	100%	+40.8%
≤90d	1	+55.6%	+40.8%	100%	100%	+40.8%
all	1	+55.6%	+40.8%	100%	100%	+40.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+40.8%	100%	+40.8%
10%	+27.3%	100%	+27.3%
15%	+15.0%	100%	+15.0%
20%	+3.7%	100%	+3.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +56% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +56% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$137 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$367

Realized+$140

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$207

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$290	$287	−$3 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$80	$79	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$247	+$137	+56%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$81	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$294	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$385	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$148	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$91	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$8	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $366.72 · official $366.77 (match) · 6 history records