Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x8124…5400 crypto 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$107 (+13%) realized +$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%59W / 41L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$75
weather 23% +$24
other 6% +$2
politics 1% +$5
sports 1% −$2
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.0% -13.2% 29% 29% -32.0%
≤30d 10 -12.9% -21.2% 30% 30% -33.5%
≤90d 64 +31.8% +19.2% 50% 47% -22.2%
all 100 +29.8% +17.4% 59% 49% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.4% 49% +1.6%
10% +6.2% 42% -8.1%
15% -4.1% 36% -17.0%
20% -13.5% 33% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses59 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 100
History coverage161d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 +$2 +208%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -11%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +149%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 14? May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 6? May 06 $2 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 2? May 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2? May 02 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 2? May 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 1? May 01 $5 +$5 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 1? May 01 $1 +$2 +350%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 1? May 01 $3 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or higher on April 3 Apr 30 $6 +$6 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 30? Apr 30 $6 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 30? Apr 30 $1 +$1 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 29? Apr 29 $6 +$14 +263%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 29? Apr 29 $1 +$4 +400%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 28? Apr 28 $2 +$8 +399%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28? Apr 28 $5 −$3 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 27? Apr 27 $5 +$4 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 27? Apr 27 $1 +$3 +320%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 27 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 27 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 17? Apr 27 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 17? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 16? Apr 16 $1 +$3 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 16? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 14? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 15? Apr 15 $4 +$6 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 15? Apr 15 $20 +$13 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 13? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 14? Apr 14 $5 +$3 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 11? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 10? Apr 10 $6 +$6 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 10? Apr 10 $6 −$4 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 10? Apr 10 $10 +$7 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 9? Apr 09 $1 +$2 +209%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 9? Apr 09 $9 +$5 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 8? Apr 09 $1 +$1 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 60¢ $3 48m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 19¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $1 39h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 5d
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 34d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 35d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 39d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 41d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 6? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 41d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 6? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 42d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 2? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 46d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 46d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 2? BUY Yes 45¢ $0 46d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 2? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 46d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 46d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 46d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 257 history records