Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x811f…16e3
world · 199 markets active 4d ago
0.0score
+$8,764 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8,762 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized+$8,762
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses150 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)225 / 199
History coverage103d
Avg bet$593
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 2 History 225 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,835
7 days+$4,835
14 days+$4,835
30 days+$4,843
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 6¢ 12¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+108%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 19¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+471%)
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? No 92¢ 0¢ $136 $0 −$136 (-100%)
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? No 40¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? No 54¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $87 $0 −$87 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? No 71¢ 0¢ $213 $0 −$213 (-100%)
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $980 +$403 +41%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2,748 +$1,619 +59%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1,908 +$2,817 +148%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 29 $2,293 −$12 -0%
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? May 29 $408 +$4 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? May 29 $3,941 −$114 -3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? May 29 $334 −$7 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 29 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? May 29 $291 +$8 +3%
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? May 29 $362 +$5 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? May 29 $628 +$10 +2%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026? May 29 $280 +$25 +9%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? May 29 $1,341 +$28 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? May 29 $219 +$3 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 29 $570 +$23 +4%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 29 $1,136 −$4 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026? May 29 $160 +$8 +5%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? May 29 $239 +$7 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 29 $622 +$11 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 29 $339 +$14 +4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $538 −$2 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $2,970 −$129 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 46% +$2,146
other 18% +$6,498
finance 15% −$654
politics 11% −$79
crypto 5% +$638
culture 3% −$145
economics 1% +$28
tech 1% +$336
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 22¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $752 6d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $980 6d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $2,748 6d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,155 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? SELL No 99¢ $81 45d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 45d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 95¢ $36 45d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 95¢ $48 45d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $201 45d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? SELL No 99¢ $8 45d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? SELL No 99¢ $10 46d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 63¢ $5 46d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 63¢ $116 46d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $101 46d
Iran leadership change by April 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 46d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? SELL No 99¢ $84 46d
Iran leadership change by April 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 46d
Iran leadership change by April 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 46d
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $90 46d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? SELL No 43¢ $6 46d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $107 46d
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $300 46d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? SELL No 43¢ $64 46d
Iran leadership change by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $50 46d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 62¢ $26 46d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? SELL No 57¢ $10 46d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? SELL No 99¢ $99 46d
Iran leadership change by April 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -82.3% -84.0% 10% 10% +68.0%
≤30d 48 -52.5% -57.0% 31% 6% +12.6%
≤90d 131 -23.8% -31.0% 57% 8% -4.4%
all 225 +7.9% -2.4% 67% 15% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 15% -2.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 12% -11.5%
15% -20.3% 10% -20.1%
20% -28.1% 8% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.20 · official $3.20 (match) · 3500 history records