Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:51:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x811f…8dcf crypto 113 markets active 2d ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-14%) realized −$16 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%43W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$16
other 17% −$10
crypto 16% −$3
world 12% +$1
sports 9% +$4
finance 8% −$4
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +28.1% +15.9% 56% 48% -0.1%
≤30d 55 +10.7% +0.2% 56% 51% -7.3%
≤90d 92 -5.2% -14.2% 47% 41% -13.8%
all 92 -5.2% -14.2% 47% 41% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 41% -13.8%
10% -22.4% 32% -22.0%
15% -29.9% 25% -29.6%
20% -36.8% 17% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses43 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)92 / 113
History coverage64d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Jun 14 $1 +$10 +970%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 14 $1 +$2 +165%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +23%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $2 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -68%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $2 $0 -10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $7 +$6 +92%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 22 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 22 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 22 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11PM ET May 20 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 20 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET May 20 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 20 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 30¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06 BUY 10¢ $2 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 12¢ $3 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND W BUY 28¢ $2 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $4 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $4 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 3d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $1 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 45¢ $2 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 37¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY 18¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 84¢ $2 4d
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 89¢ $2 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 89¢ $2 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 89¢ $2 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will United States win on 2026-06 BUY 31¢ $2 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 53¢ $2 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 90¢ $2 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $2 5d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.70 · official $5.70 (match) · 212 history records