Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:55:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x811e…9b75 other 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$381 (+0%) realized +$379 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate22%32W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$1,391per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$699now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$19
14 days−$32
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$110
other 33% −$94
sports 14% +$564
culture 2% −$6
world 2% −$5
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$9
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 33 +2.5% -7.2% 12% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 89 +2.5% -7.3% 11% 6% -9.5%
all 145 +1.3% -8.3% 22% 14% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 14% -9.4%
10% -17.1% 14% -18.0%
15% -25.1% 10% -26.0%
20% -32.5% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,670) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$10 · ×4.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$699
Realized+$379
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses32 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)145 / 147
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,391
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $442 $445 +$2 (+1%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $254 $254 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $285 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,410 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,333 −$4 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $1,018 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $4,939 −$6 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $1,085 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,293 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,393 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,345 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $1,603 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,593 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,622 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $3,546 −$5 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,014 −$4 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $76 +$73 +97%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,597 −$3 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,694 −$2 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,397 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $421 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $762 +$4 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $4,788 −$5 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,013 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $78 +$70 +90%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $4,884 −$5 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,846 −$3 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $74 +$39 +52%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,446 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $3,702 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $3,307 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,191 −$2 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $3,282 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,513 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $2,602 −$3 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $1,652 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $1,669 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $5,927 −$9 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,989 −$3 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $1,604 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $254 39m
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $285 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $285 2h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $312 5h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $313 6h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $946 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $947 4d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,016 4d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,018 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $451 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $451 4d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,084 4d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,085 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $947 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $948 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,383 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,386 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,391 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,393 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,343 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,345 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,343 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,345 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $443 11d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,613 12d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,615 12d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,601 12d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,603 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,590 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,593 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $699.00 · official $699.00 (match) · 458 history records