Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:56:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x811e…ce09 sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$207 (-3%) realized −$1,425 · open +$1,218
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$497per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$4,918now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$1,469
other 12% −$477
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -13.7% -21.9% 56% 56% -16.4%
≤30d 9 -13.7% -21.9% 56% 56% -16.4%
≤90d 9 -13.7% -21.9% 56% 56% -16.4%
all 9 -13.7% -21.9% 56% 56% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 56% -16.4%
10% -29.4% 56% -24.4%
15% -36.2% 44% -31.7%
20% -42.5% 33% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$287 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4,918
Realized−$1,425
Unrealized+$1,218
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$497
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 78¢ $1,500 $2,422 +$922 (+61%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Under 69¢ 92¢ $1,000 $1,326 +$326 (+33%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 42¢ 42¢ $1,000 $988 −$12 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $506 +$158 +31%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $513 −$500 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $103 +$41 +40%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,011 +$576 +57%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $250 +$18 +7%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $152 +$131 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $1,017 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1,016 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1,009 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $508 2h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 83¢ $664 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes $51 3h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 62¢ $506 4h
Tunisia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $513 17h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $509 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 10¢ $119 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $25 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Under 35¢ $102 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $1,011 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $103 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 30¢ $102 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 32¢ $29 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 30¢ $136 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 25¢ $133 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 25¢ $3 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 25¢ $13 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 25¢ $33 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 25¢ $4 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 25¢ $0 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 25¢ $31 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 25¢ $6 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 25¢ $2 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 25¢ $23 27h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 41h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 41h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $283 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,918.31 · official $4,918.32 (match) · 35 history records