Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x811c…fd36 sports 1029 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,868 (-4%) realized −$2,899 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%659W / 367L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$415est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$250
7 days−$27
14 days−$118
30 days−$438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$1,597
other 15% −$1,469
world 0% −$29
crypto 0% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +1.6% -8.1% 75% 60% -10.2%
≤30d 166 -4.8% -13.8% 69% 57% -12.7%
≤90d 837 -6.3% -15.2% 60% 50% -14.6%
all 1026 -4.9% -14.0% 64% 45% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 45% -13.2%
10% -22.2% 27% -21.5%
15% -29.7% 17% -29.1%
20% -36.6% 12% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$45 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized−$2,899
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses659 / 367
Est. fees paid−$415
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1026 / 1029
History coverage103d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1026 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 46¢ 56¢ $73 $90 +$17 (+23%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $72 $87 +$15 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $73 −$1 -2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $76 +$10 +13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $79 +$2 +3%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $81 −$17 -21%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $78 +$18 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $81 −$39 -49%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $77 +$13 +17%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $77 +$8 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $73 +$9 +12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 −$55 -77%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $75 −$37 -49%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $70 −$14 -20%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $72 +$9 +12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $74 +$27 +36%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $71 +$9 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $70 +$2 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $124 −$123 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $77 −$77 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $83 −$34 -40%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $71 −$31 -44%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $70 +$10 +14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $73 +$9 +12%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $70 +$3 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $70 +$11 +16%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $72 +$20 +27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $71 +$35 +50%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $75 +$27 +36%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $72 +$9 +12%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $70 +$5 +7%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $77 +$13 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$34 +66%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $65 +$15 +23%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $73 +$8 +11%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $76 +$15 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $78 +$23 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $80 +$11 +14%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $73 +$18 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $74 +$6 +8%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $70 +$3 +4%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $71 +$30 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $72 +$30 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $73 +$8 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $74 +$4 +6%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $61 +$53 +86%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $73 +$20 +27%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $81 +$21 +26%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $81 +$21 +26%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $75 +$5 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $74 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 89¢ $72 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY 73¢ $139 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $73 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $73 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 80¢ $81 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Algeria 64¢ $64 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $79 3h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 80¢ $81 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 42¢ $42 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $76 6h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Iraq 81¢ $78 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $81 6h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Senegal 90¢ $86 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $77 19h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 81¢ $77 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $16 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 43¢ $39 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 67¢ $56 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $70 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $71 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $72 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $101 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $81 31h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $73 31h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $75 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 90¢ $72 32h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $70 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $74 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $71 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.35 · official $312.01 · 2234 history records