Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:09:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x8119…f887
politics · 13 markets active 602d ago
0.0score
+$9,972,192 +390%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,972,192 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Net worth$0
Realized+$9,972,192
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses12 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage10d
Avg bet$196,551
Trades / day361.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 15 $8,244 +$10,358 +126%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 12 $69,078 +$72,041 +104%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 12 $220,493 +$483,202 +219%
Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? Nov 07 $35,703 +$120,386 +337%
Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? Nov 07 $25,201 +$88,739 +352%
Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? Nov 07 $74,354 +$194,647 +262%
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? Nov 07 $78,109 +$341,430 +437%
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? Nov 07 $74,400 +$823,921 +1107%
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? Nov 07 $30,113 +$1,046,211 +3474%
Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? Nov 07 $64,173 +$1,456,484 +2270%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $108,452 +$106,698 +98%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $1,744,912 +$5,228,918 +300%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presiden Oct 18 $21,925 −$843 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 100% +$9,972,192
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? BUY No 44¢ $20,824 601d
Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? BUY No 55¢ $5,598 602d
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? BUY Yes 59¢ $144 602d
Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? BUY Yes 56¢ $3,111 602d
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? BUY Yes 59¢ $590 602d
Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? BUY Yes 56¢ $174 602d
Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? BUY Yes 56¢ $952 602d
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? BUY No 56¢ $8,194 602d
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? BUY No 56¢ $560 602d
Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? BUY Yes 56¢ $840 602d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $666 602d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 602d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $666 602d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 602d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $666 602d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $816 602d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 602d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 61¢ $8 602d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $817 602d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $108 602d
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? BUY No 56¢ $1 602d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $703 602d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $819 602d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 602d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $103 602d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 602d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 602d
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? BUY Yes 59¢ $39 602d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 602d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 60¢ $820 602d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +92%
net ROI/market (all)+501.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 13 +564.5% +501.2% 92% 92% +321.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover361.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +501.2% 92% +321.7%
10% +443.7% 92% +281.4%
15% ← realistic here +391.2% 92% +244.5%
20% +343.0% 92% +210.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records