trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 15 | $8,244 | +$10,358 | +126% |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Nov 12 | $69,078 | +$72,041 | +104% |
| Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi | Nov 12 | $220,493 | +$483,202 | +219% |
| Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | Nov 07 | $35,703 | +$120,386 | +337% |
| Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? | Nov 07 | $25,201 | +$88,739 | +352% |
| Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? | Nov 07 | $74,354 | +$194,647 | +262% |
| Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Nov 07 | $78,109 | +$341,430 | +437% |
| Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? | Nov 07 | $74,400 | +$823,921 | +1107% |
| Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? | Nov 07 | $30,113 | +$1,046,211 | +3474% |
| Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? | Nov 07 | $64,173 | +$1,456,484 | +2270% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $108,452 | +$106,698 | +98% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $1,744,912 | +$5,228,918 | +300% |
| Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presiden | Oct 18 | $21,925 | −$843 | -4% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 13 | +564.5% | +501.2% | 92% | 92% | +321.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +501.2% | 92% | +321.7% |
| 10% | +443.7% | 92% | +281.4% |
| 15% ← realistic here | +391.2% | 92% | +244.5% |
| 20% | +343.0% | 92% | +210.8% |