Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:14:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8117…7ae6 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+4%) realized +$45 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate23%11W / 37L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$51
world 32% −$3
politics 13% −$1
sports 9% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -3.3% -12.5% 0% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 11 -1.1% -10.5% 18% 0% -11.0%
all 48 +7.7% -2.6% 23% 4% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 4% -5.7%
10% -11.9% 4% -14.8%
15% -20.4% 4% -23.0%
20% -28.2% 4% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×8.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.47 per $1 lost it wins $6.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses11 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage268d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $81 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $76 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $45 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $48 −$3 -7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $2 $0 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $3 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $18 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $4 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $2 $0 -8%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Dec 12 $8 +$10 +133%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $16 +$43 +270%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $9 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $4 $0 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 07 $25 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $7 $0 +1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $21 $0 +0%
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30? Sep 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 30 $22 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 1h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $38 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $38 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $19 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $24 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $45 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $22 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $23 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $48 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $38 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $38 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 94¢ $19 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 92¢ $18 32d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 33d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 33d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $43 34d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $43 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.16 · official $42.16 (match) · 186 history records