Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8116…b2a8 crypto 1397 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (230 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10,320 (-63%) realized −$10,305 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate60%876W / 574L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day229.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$3,392
weather 1% +$8
other 0% −$5
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (230 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 599 -62.8% -66.4% 20% 17% -56.1%
≤30d 1450 -8.5% -17.2% 60% 58% -13.8%
≤90d 1450 -8.5% -17.2% 60% 58% -13.8%
all 1450 -8.5% -17.2% 60% 58% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover229.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 58% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 45% -22.0%
15% -32.4% 30% -29.6%
20% -39.0% 15% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized−$10,305
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses876 / 574
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions29
Markets (closed)1450 / 1397
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day229.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 1450 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Up 71¢ 62¢ $37 $33 −$4 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? No 68¢ 66¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 20? No 77¢ 76¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 20? No 75¢ 72¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? No 73¢ 73¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 20? No 76¢ 67¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? No 76¢ 74¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? No 62¢ 66¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? No 65¢ 64¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Seattle have between 0.5 and 1 inches of precipitation in June? No 60¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+66%)
Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in June? No 61¢ 96¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+57%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? No 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 19? No 71¢ 75¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? No 62¢ 80¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? No 72¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? No 68¢ 65¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19? No 74¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 19? No 63¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 19? No 67¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 19? No 67¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 19? No 68¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? No 59¢ 59¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 19? No 70¢ 56¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 20? No 72¢ 73¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 19? No 62¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 469 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - April 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$2 -105%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on April 6? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 15? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on March 30? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $4 3m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 72¢ $3 4m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $5 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $37 5m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 75¢ $13 8m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $4 11m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $4 11m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $4 14m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $4 14m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 62¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $34 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $36 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $37 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $37 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $30 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $28 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 62¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.32 · official $246.83 · 3500 history records