Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8116…815e sports 554 markets active 6h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,323 (+4%) realized +$2,323 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%282W / 272L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day36.9pace
Fees−$421est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$2,905
14 days+$2,869
30 days+$1,435
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$2,028
other 0% +$2
politics 0% −$7
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -12.4% -20.7% 44% 40% +21.5%
≤30d 264 -2.0% -11.3% 50% 43% -6.4%
≤90d 554 -1.3% -10.7% 51% 43% -6.4%
all 554 -1.3% -10.7% 51% 43% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 43% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 38% -15.4%
15% -27.1% 32% -23.6%
20% -34.2% 25% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$13 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,323
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses282 / 272
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$421
Open positions0
Markets (closed)554 / 554
History coverage72d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 554 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 +49%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -86%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$4 -82%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +39%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$2 -15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 171.5 Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +58%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $93 $0 -0%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $15 −$14 -95%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -56%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$10 +85%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,839 +$3,372 +183%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +78%
NBA Finals: Game 1 Winner to be Champion? Jun 14 $77 +$23 +30%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $259 +$41 +16%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -56%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $70 +$37 +52%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $31 +$19 +60%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $67 −$26 -39%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -49%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +108%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -76%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $15 −$3 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $5 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $5 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 8h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Algeria 12¢ $0 9h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 2¢ $0 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 9h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 78¢ $1 10h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 48¢ $1 10h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 65¢ $2 10h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 65¢ $1 10h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 65¢ $1 10h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 85¢ $1 10h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 65¢ $1 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 10h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 11h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 42¢ $1 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 13h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 BUY Over 63¢ $1 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 62¢ $0 13h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 45¢ $1 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2822 history records