Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8113…22cb sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$477 (-25%) realized −$447 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate28%10W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day64.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$398
other 31% −$130
crypto 22% +$43
world 11% +$1
politics 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -35.6% -41.7% 28% 17% -43.9%
≤30d 36 -35.6% -41.7% 28% 17% -43.9%
≤90d 36 -35.6% -41.7% 28% 17% -43.9%
all 36 -35.6% -41.7% 28% 17% -43.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.7% 17% -43.9%
10% ← realistic here -47.3% 8% -49.3%
15% -52.4% 8% -54.2%
20% -57.1% 8% -58.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$24 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$657
Realized−$447
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses10 / 26
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions18
Markets (closed)36 / 54
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day64.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 91¢ 90¢ $93 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 89¢ 88¢ $92 $90 −$2 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 59¢ 58¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 62¢ 62¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 42¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-3%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 30¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $33 $38 +$5 (+15%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 35¢ 34¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-4%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 89¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 60¢ 70¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+17%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 93¢ 80¢ $29 $25 −$4 (-14%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 28¢ 46¢ $14 $23 +$9 (+62%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 8¢ $31 $11 −$20 (-65%)
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 67¢ 40¢ $17 $10 −$7 (-40%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $17 $6 −$10 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$8 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$6 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $53 +$6 +11%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? Jun 17 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 17? Jun 17 $54 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $68 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$48 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$26 -96%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $17 +$29 +165%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $33 +$2 +5%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $16 +$60 +365%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $17 −$17 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -99%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 16 $59 −$55 -93%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $66 −$61 -93%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $53 −$52 -97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $71 −$65 -92%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $42 −$39 -93%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $70 −$64 -92%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28 −$4 -13%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $12 $0 -3%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 16 $22 −$1 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 −$3 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $42 −$1 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 −$1 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $52 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $53 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $33 44m
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $63 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $68 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $54 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $27 3h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 62¢ $57 4h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 31¢ $46 4h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $93 4h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 89¢ $92 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $50 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $63 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $32 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 28¢ $14 13h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 32¢ $14 14h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $8 14h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 10¢ $9 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $15 14h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 15h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 15h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Austria 10¢ $20 15h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 16h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 37¢ $17 17h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $19 19h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 25¢ $16 21h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $656.69 · official $656.69 (match) · 91 history records