Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x8113…e019 crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$75 (-2%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate76%35W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$87
14 days+$87
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$37
other 5% −$88
sports 4% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +23.9% +12.1% 75% 75% +16.8%
≤30d 4 +23.9% +12.1% 75% 75% +16.8%
≤90d 4 +23.9% +12.1% 75% 75% +16.8%
all 46 -6.7% -15.6% 76% 48% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 48% -10.5%
10% -23.7% 22% -19.0%
15% -31.1% 9% -26.9%
20% -37.8% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% too few recent
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$57 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses35 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage254d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $101 +$26 +26%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$62 +122%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $100 +$48 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Nov 04 $151 −$151 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Nov 04 $107 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Nov 04 $124 +$27 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Nov 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Nov 04 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Nov 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Oct 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Oct 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Oct 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Oct 31 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Oct 30 $307 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Oct 30 $20 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Oct 30 $288 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Oct 30 $271 +$17 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Oct 28 $267 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Oct 28 $100 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Oct 27 $241 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Oct 27 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Oct 27 $230 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Oct 26 $20 +$14 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Oct 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Oct 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Oct 26 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Oct 26 $255 +$28 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Oct 26 $8 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Oct 26 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Oct 26 $213 +$64 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Oct 26 $195 +$17 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Oct 26 $177 +$27 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Oct 26 $162 +$15 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Oct 26 $137 +$26 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Oct 26 $102 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Oct 26 $89 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Oct 26 $82 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Oct 26 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Oct 26 $64 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Oct 26 $39 +$9 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Oct 26 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Oct 26 $49 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Oct 26 $42 +$6 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Oct 26 $37 +$6 +15%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 13 $199 −$150 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $113 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $51 8h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $100 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $49 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $151 225d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $124 225d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $107 225d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $100 225d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 225d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 228d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $12 229d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $100 229d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 230d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $307 230d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $20 230d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $288 230d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $271 231d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $267 232d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $100 232d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $241 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $230 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $20 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $255 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 234d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $213 234d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $195 234d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $8 234d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records