Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:20:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8113…288b crypto 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$1,871 (+15%) realized +$14,843 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +673% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +495% what you keep after slip
Net edge+495%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%263W / 200L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day582.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,983now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13,719
7 days+$14,843
14 days+$14,843
30 days+$14,843
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,503
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+599.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 463 +672.6% +599.0% 57% 54% -8.9%
≤30d 463 +672.6% +599.0% 57% 54% -8.9%
≤90d 463 +672.6% +599.0% 57% 54% -8.9%
all 463 +672.6% +599.0% 57% 54% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover582.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +599.0% 54% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here +532.1% 52% -17.6%
15% +471.0% 50% -25.5%
20% +415.0% 48% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +118% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +673% · $-wt +118% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late +1393% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
18.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$42 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1,983
Realized+$14,843
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses263 / 200
Open positions68
Markets (closed)463 / 129
History coverage6d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day582.8
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 68 History 463 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? No 83¢ 76¢ $401 $363 −$38 (-10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $227 $238 +$11 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? No 52¢ 44¢ $244 $208 −$37 (-15%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? No 62¢ 80¢ $153 $197 +$44 (+29%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Yes 72¢ 78¢ $167 $180 +$13 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 16? No 74¢ 78¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? No 98¢ 97¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? No 96¢ 96¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? No 58¢ 57¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? No 96¢ 93¢ $32 $32 −$1 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 21? No 95¢ 95¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 20? No 89¢ 90¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? No 68¢ 66¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? No 76¢ 79¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? No 64¢ 60¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 21? No 93¢ 95¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Yes 90¢ 95¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? No 64¢ 69¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? No 92¢ 91¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 19? No 92¢ 97¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? No 77¢ 78¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 14 $0 $0 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 2? Jun 14 $1 +$13 +2066%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27? Jun 14 $0 +$10 +10170%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 1? Jun 14 $1 +$25 +2570%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 30? Jun 14 $215 −$216 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 14 $0 +$4 +1085%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 5? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 25? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 1? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +319%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? Jun 14 $13 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 7? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 28? Jun 14 $0 +$119 +261969%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6? Jun 14 $8 −$207 -2432%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 1? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +270%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 23? Jun 14 $125 −$174 -140%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 14 $6 −$7 -112%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? Jun 14 $0 +$4 +1616%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 8? Jun 14 $1 +$11 +1145%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 8? Jun 14 $0 +$4 +8139%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? Jun 14 $0 +$6 +2263%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 17? Jun 14 $1 +$90 +8072%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 7? Jun 14 $12 −$19 -159%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 23? Jun 14 $0 +$17 +4256%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$3 -145%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? Jun 14 $0 +$5 +10492%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 1? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -108%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? Jun 14 $0 +$31 +9833%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 4? Jun 14 $0 +$47 +65501%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 28? Jun 14 $0 +$5 +18456%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 19? Jun 14 $2 +$13 +830%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 27? Jun 14 $1 +$108 +9686%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 24? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on February 3? Jun 14 $0 +$11 +4266%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 8? Jun 14 $0 +$36 +7616%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 3? Jun 14 $3 +$99 +3872%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 8? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 28? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 21? Jun 14 $1 −$188 -22956%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 4? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +226%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 6? Jun 14 $0 +$9 +7960%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 17? Jun 14 $1 +$46 +6183%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on June 1? Jun 14 $3 −$4 -113%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 9? Jun 14 $33 −$34 -102%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? Jun 14 $0 +$11 +51661%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 15? Jun 14 $0 +$2 +1224%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 9? Jun 14 $0 +$110 +30366%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 22? Jun 14 $0 +$11 +3153%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 21? Jun 14 $2 +$39 +2050%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 26? Jun 14 $56 −$81 -142%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 1m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $7 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $3 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $10 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $10 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $3 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 4m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $5 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $5 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $5 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $2 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $5 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 93¢ $5 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL No 87¢ $4 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $5 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 93¢ $5 5m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $10 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $2 6m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 9m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? SELL No 93¢ $0 10m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 10m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $8 12m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $10 12m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $6 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,983.37 · official $1,982.68 (match) · 3500 history records