Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:17:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8112…48a0 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15 (-7%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -84% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -87% what you keep after slip
Net edge-87%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-86.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -84.5% -86.0% 10% 10% -76.5%
≤30d 10 -84.5% -86.0% 10% 10% -76.5%
≤90d 10 -84.5% -86.0% 10% 10% -76.5%
all 10 -84.5% -86.0% 10% 10% -76.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -86.0% 10% -76.5%
10% -87.3% 10% -78.8%
15% -88.6% 10% -80.8%
20% -89.7% 10% -82.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -85% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $77 −$25 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $60 −$58 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records