Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:02:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8111…3d69 crypto 657 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$90 (-2%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%360W / 296L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days+$171
14 days+$171
30 days+$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$141
other 2% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 432 +2.6% -7.2% 64% 62% -5.2%
≤30d 432 +2.6% -7.2% 64% 62% -5.2%
≤90d 656 -1.7% -11.0% 55% 54% -12.7%
all 656 -1.7% -11.0% 55% 54% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 54% -12.7%
10% -19.5% 53% -21.0%
15% -27.3% 53% -28.7%
20% -34.4% 45% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses360 / 296
Open positions1
Markets (closed)656 / 657
History coverage67d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 656 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Down 54¢ 55¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +57%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +65%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$10 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$12 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$5 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$11 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +58%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$13 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +46%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +55%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$10 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$9 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$8 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 11m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $18 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $20 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $19 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $9 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $6 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $17 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $19 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $18 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $20 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.33 · official $15.71 · 1544 history records