Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:33:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x8111…2cba
sports · 42 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$21 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open −$26
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage37d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 2 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$18
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 76¢ 76¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 12.5 No 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Fight to Go the Distance? No 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 No 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5 No 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5 No 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 15.5 No 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 18.5 No 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 +$4 +23%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$11 +199%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +46%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $1 +$2 +149%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 +$1 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $1 +$1 +42%
Julius Randle: Assists O/U 3.5 May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5 May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 12 $1 $0 -31%
Ausar Thompson: Assists O/U 2.5 May 12 $1 −$1 -46%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? May 11 $3 +$1 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 11 $1 $0 -33%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 May 09 $2 −$1 -91%
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5 May 09 $1 $0 -43%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $2 $0 -5%
Paul George: Points O/U 15.5 May 08 $2 $0 -4%
Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5 May 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 May 08 $2 −$2 -91%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $1 $0 -32%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 08 $4 −$2 -46%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1 $0 -4%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 May 08 $4 +$3 +92%
LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5 May 08 $1 +$1 +83%
LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 6.5 May 08 $8 +$7 +95%
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 27.5 May 08 $2 +$2 +81%
Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5 May 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 15.5 May 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5 May 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 3.5 May 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 12.5 May 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 18.5 May 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $18 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -95%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8PM ET May 07 $12 −$2 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% −$9
sports 40% −$8
crypto 10% −$5
world 4% +$1
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $21 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $16 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $17 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $27 19h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $1 30d
Julius Randle: Assists O/U 3.5 SELL No 1¢ $0 30d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $1 30d
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5 SELL No 1¢ $0 30d
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 SELL No 2¢ $0 30d
Julius Randle: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY No 51¢ $1 31d
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5 BUY No 61¢ $1 31d
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 BUY No 64¢ $2 31d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 31d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 31d
Ausar Thompson: Assists O/U 2.5 SELL Yes 36¢ $1 31d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $1 31d
Ausar Thompson: Assists O/U 2.5 BUY Yes 63¢ $1 32d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 32d
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 SELL No 6¢ $0 34d
Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5 SELL No 40¢ $1 34d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 34d
Paul George: Points O/U 15.5 SELL Yes 61¢ $2 34d
Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5 SELL No 1¢ $0 34d
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 SELL Yes 6¢ $0 34d
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 BUY No 61¢ $2 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +111.0% +90.9% 100% 100% +52.3%
≤30d 8 +77.4% +60.5% 100% 100% +50.5%
≤90d 40 -14.5% -22.7% 35% 35% -5.7%
all 40 -14.5% -22.7% 35% 35% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 35% -5.7%
10% -30.1% 35% -14.7%
15% -36.8% 30% -22.9%
20% -43.0% 20% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.68 · official $20.68 (match) · 88 history records