Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
81 0x810d…81f1 crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%42W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$6
crypto 12% +$2
other 3% $0
tech 2% $0
politics 1% $0
world 0% −$8
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 54 -1.7% -11.0% 78% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses42 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage534d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $82 $81 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $54 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 01 $39 $0 +1%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 03 $62 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in January? Feb 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Nov 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Oct 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Sep 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Sep 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 04 $58 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 03 $37 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $5,259 −$5 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Mar 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy? Mar 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $17 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $100 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $18 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $160 by January 31, 2025? Feb 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Feb 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will AS Roma win the Serie A? Feb 12 $45 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $82 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $54 30d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 61d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $25 61d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $45 63d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 99¢ $8 93d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 99¢ $31 93d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $37 93d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $62 122d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 149d
Will Solana reach $200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $48 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $22 181d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $50 183d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 211d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $18 241d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? BUY No 100¢ $47 242d
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? BUY No 100¢ $18 272d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $41 274d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? BUY No 100¢ $29 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? BUY No 100¢ $38 302d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 332d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $19 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $39 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 363d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 393d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 393d
XRP all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.48 · official $81.48 (match) · 115 history records