Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8106…bd36 sports 378 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$466 (-2%) realized −$472 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate58%220W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$309est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$233
7 days+$321
14 days+$341
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$836
crypto 5% −$104
other 1% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +17.5% +6.3% 79% 67% +7.1%
≤30d 121 +5.6% -4.5% 61% 53% -9.7%
≤90d 374 -2.2% -11.5% 58% 41% -12.3%
all 377 -2.1% -11.4% 58% 41% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 41% -12.2%
10% -19.9% 32% -20.6%
15% -27.6% 21% -28.3%
20% -34.7% 14% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$32 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$472
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses220 / 157
Est. fees paid−$309
Open positions1
Markets (closed)377 / 378
History coverage100d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 377 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Vici Gaming 93¢ 100¢ $79 $85 +$6 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $66 +$13 +20%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $20 +$10 +50%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Jun 17 $41 −$1 -2%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 +$6 +29%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $43 +$52 +122%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$3 +32%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $40 −$4 -10%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -74%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$11 +57%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $40 +$8 +20%
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs Nuclear TigeRES (+1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $64 +$28 +44%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $197 +$16 +8%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $50 +$19 +37%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $54 +$24 +44%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $38 +$17 +44%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $111 +$27 +24%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $73 +$38 +52%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $66 +$8 +12%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $64 +$9 +14%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $63 +$2 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team Bald (BO1) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $20 +$2 +8%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 12 $12 +$3 +27%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$3 +30%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 12 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$19 +189%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $20 +$6 +29%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $20 +$14 +68%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +36%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $6 +$2 +38%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 11 $2 +$1 +52%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 93¢ $79 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $79 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 83¢ $66 2h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $30 2h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 66¢ $20 3h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 42¢ $20 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series SELL Carstensz 83¢ $22 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner SELL Carstensz 100¢ $26 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 77¢ $20 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series BUY Carstensz 75¢ $20 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series SELL InterActive Philippines 27¢ $18 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series BUY InterActive Philippines 30¢ $20 6h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $95 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 97¢ $0 9h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $43 9h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 88¢ $13 9h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL PlayTime 79¢ $0 9h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 89¢ $0 9h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner SELL PlayTime 74¢ $36 9h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 79¢ $27 9h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 74¢ $13 9h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $10 10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $0 10h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 66¢ $10 10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $3 10h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $20 10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 10h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 81¢ $40 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.10 · official $85.10 (match) · 1229 history records