Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:30:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8105…a0a5 sports 238 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,393 (-8%) realized −$1,388 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%109W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$234est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$205
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1,379
other 12% −$346
crypto 1% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 36 -23.2% -30.5% 33% 33% -21.1%
≤90d 232 -11.2% -19.6% 45% 45% -19.3%
all 237 -10.4% -18.9% 46% 46% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 46% -17.8%
10% -26.7% 45% -25.6%
15% -33.8% 43% -32.8%
20% -40.3% 39% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$58 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$1,388
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses109 / 128
Est. fees paid−$234
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 238
History coverage140d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $101 $96 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $42 −$42 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $24 +$19 +78%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $97 −$70 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$20 +82%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $20 −$19 -99%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $33 +$33 +101%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $13 +$21 +165%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $80 +$76 +94%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $27 −$26 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $17 −$16 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $12 +$39 +321%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $34 +$36 +104%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $62 +$63 +101%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $76 +$68 +89%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $44 +$32 +74%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) May 30 $23 +$39 +165%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $14 +$22 +152%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage May 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox May 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? May 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner May 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 29 $31 −$18 -60%
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) May 23 $36 +$33 +94%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 3 Winner May 23 $33 +$25 +76%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner May 23 $38 +$24 +62%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 15 $23 +$19 +81%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? May 15 $25 +$24 +95%
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5) May 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner May 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) May 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) May 14 $33 +$40 +124%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 14 $42 +$36 +86%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner May 14 $42 +$36 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $75 3d
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 61¢ $42 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $42 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $24 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 12¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $24 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 16¢ $24 11d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $20 11d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 35¢ $12 11d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes $5 11d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $11 11d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $19 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $76 11d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $33 11d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $34 11d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Knicks 99¢ $156 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $13 12d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $15 12d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $27 13d
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Switzerland 15¢ $8 13d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 32¢ $17 13d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 99¢ $52 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 13d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $13 13d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $52 13d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 94¢ $70 13d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $34 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $124 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.10 · official $96.10 (match) · 571 history records