Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:17:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8103…4d0a sports 393 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,138 (-6%) realized −$795 · open −$343
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%117W / 262L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$157est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days−$758
14 days−$235
30 days−$571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$429
world 31% −$340
other 28% −$1,139
crypto 1% +$2
finance 0% +$41
politics 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -20.6% -28.2% 23% 23% -26.7%
≤30d 283 +13.8% +3.0% 31% 30% -14.2%
≤90d 374 +8.6% -1.7% 31% 30% -13.0%
all 379 +8.0% -2.3% 31% 29% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 29% -13.1%
10% -11.6% 28% -21.5%
15% -20.1% 28% -29.0%
20% -28.0% 27% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$38 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$795
Unrealized−$343
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses117 / 262
Est. fees paid−$157
Open positions13
Markets (closed)379 / 393
History coverage103d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 379 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+55%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ $134 $19 −$115 (-86%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $15 +$5 (+54%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 29¢ 19¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Yes 20¢ $75 $11 −$64 (-86%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes $65 $10 −$55 (-84%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $9 −$6 (-41%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 12¢ $94 $8 −$86 (-92%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? Yes 16¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-85%)
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 207 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $31 +$127 +414%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $35 +$67 +188%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $9 +$13 +147%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 21 $50 −$29 -59%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$112 +365%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $36 −$35 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $56 +$62 +112%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $41 −$17 -41%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $49 −$47 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $50 −$49 -98%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Jun 20 $72 −$61 -85%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $50 −$29 -57%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 −$11 -21%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $40 +$55 +138%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $122 −$120 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $225 −$220 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $184 −$180 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $64 −$63 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $102 −$3 -3%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Haiti to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 20 $76 −$7 -10%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $152 −$150 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $94 +$51 +54%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 19 $10 −$2 -19%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $35 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 19¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes $10 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes $5 17h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 68¢ $21 17h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 17h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 18h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 18h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 20h
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $21 21h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $30 21h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 22h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 24h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 24h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $36 38h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $118 38h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $56 38h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $56 38h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $24 40h
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $24 42h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 43h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 45h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st BUY 29¢ $70 45h
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? SELL Yes $11 46h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $21 46h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $41 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $95 46h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 22¢ $122 47h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 23¢ $26 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.77 · official $176.81 (match) · 925 history records