Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:32:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80fe…f7ad crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$135 (-6%) realized −$131 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%21W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$179
other 35% −$2
sports 5% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -27.6% -34.5% 20% 20% -4.8%
≤30d 5 -27.6% -34.5% 20% 20% -4.8%
≤90d 55 -5.9% -14.9% 38% 33% -16.1%
all 55 -5.9% -14.9% 38% 33% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 33% -16.1%
10% -23.0% 31% -24.2%
15% -30.4% 27% -31.5%
20% -37.3% 25% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$29 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$131
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 34
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)55 / 60
History coverage85d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 60¢ 58¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-2%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 30¢ 30¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Yes 10¢ 8¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $204 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $29 −$19 -67%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $110 +$50 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 15 $10 +$8 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $43 −$33 -76%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $28 +$16 +56%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $12 +$10 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 05 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 01 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 01 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 01 $44 −$9 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 01 $22 −$21 -95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $31 +$25 +83%
Will Hungary win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $55 −$41 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 31 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 31 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 31 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 -7%
Will Norway win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $45 −$29 -64%
Will Serbia win on 2026-03-30? Mar 31 $30 +$31 +104%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Norway vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Mar 31 $10 −$7 -69%
Will Liberia vs. Libya end in a draw? Mar 31 $5 +$16 +323%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 31 $20 −$19 -94%
Germany vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Mar 31 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 30 $70 −$43 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 30 $15 +$30 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 30 $18 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 30 $260 −$257 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 30 $150 −$148 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 30 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 30 $80 +$246 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 30 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 30 $60 +$149 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 30 $65 +$130 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 30 $30 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 30 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 30 $15 +$53 +356%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 30 $28 +$28 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 30 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $76 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 84¢ $72 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $73 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $7 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 84¢ $81 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 84¢ $25 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 84¢ $25 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 4h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 4h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $121 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 7h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $9 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $18 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 68d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 68d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $43 68d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 32¢ $44 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.84 · official $121.84 (match) · 155 history records