Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80fe…4454 crypto 1449 markets active 3h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$300 (+3%) realized +$300 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate86%1252W / 198L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day69.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$34
14 days+$69
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 -0.7% -10.2% 92% 13% -11.0%
≤30d 1158 +2.9% -6.9% 93% 22% -8.6%
≤90d 1450 +1.2% -8.5% 86% 26% -9.2%
all 1450 +1.2% -8.5% 86% 26% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 26% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 12% -17.9%
15% -25.2% 9% -25.8%
20% -32.6% 7% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$300
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses1252 / 198
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1450 / 1449
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day69.0
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1450 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.52 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records