Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:52:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
80 0x80fc…d404 sports 184 markets active 1h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,035 (+6%) realized +$5,032 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%114W / 57L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$430per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,809now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,135
7 days−$1,130
14 days−$1,106
30 days−$1,094
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$813
economics 25% −$10
sports 21% +$3,655
world 13% −$41
politics 10% +$56
crypto 1% +$506
culture 1% +$19
tech 0% +$4
finance 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -81.6% -83.3% 9% 7% -29.2%
≤30d 48 -68.4% -71.4% 19% 15% -27.4%
≤90d 79 -23.1% -30.4% 43% 34% -8.3%
all 171 +6.9% -3.3% 67% 50% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 50% -3.7%
10% -12.5% 39% -12.9%
15% -21.0% 30% -21.3%
20% -28.7% 23% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$38 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.38 per $1 lost it wins $3.38
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$1,809
Realized+$5,032
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses114 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions13
Markets (closed)171 / 184
History coverage266d
Avg bet$430
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $890 $895 +$5 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $552 $548 −$4 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $160 $156 −$4 (-2%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes $80 $75 −$5 (-6%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 93¢ 92¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Ledger IPO before 2027? No 28¢ 90¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+220%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 62¢ 90¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+46%)
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 79¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 86¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No 88¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 88¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
76ers vs. Heat Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-16.5) Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Pelicans (-1.5) Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
New Delhi: Oliver Crawford vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Jesper de J Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ante Delija vs. Serghei Spivac (Heavyweight, Main Car Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-12.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
76ers vs. Timberwolves Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Celtics vs. Lakers Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Thunder Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $202 +$28 +14%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Celtics Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bucks vs. Suns Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Rockets vs. Bulls Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 223.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Rockets Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Clippers vs. Rockets Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Lakers vs. Heat Jun 21 $87 −$87 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Jun 21 $138 −$138 -100%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Jun 21 $135 −$135 -100%
Pacers vs. Bulls Jun 21 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 21 $815 −$815 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,489 +$711 +48%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $794 −$4 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $299 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $199 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 17 $297 +$1 +0%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 +$9 +31%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 11 $36 +$24 +65%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 06 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 29 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 29 $5 +$3 +70%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 29 $10 +$7 +67%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $299 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $164 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $557 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $202 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $82 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $893 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,489 15h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $815 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 85¢ $42 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 85¢ $7 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 85¢ $6 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 85¢ $2 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 85¢ $1 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 85¢ $4 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 85¢ $4 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 85¢ $21 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 85¢ $500 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 85¢ $10 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 85¢ $97 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 85¢ $3 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 85¢ $1 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 85¢ $6 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 85¢ $53 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 85¢ $11 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 85¢ $21 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 85¢ $794 3d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $298 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $199 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $298 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $28 6d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Curaçao 82¢ $57 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,808.97 · official $1,808.97 (match) · 635 history records