Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:22:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
80 0x80fc…702c crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%48W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 85% −$12
crypto 10% +$1
other 3% −$2
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 56 +0.0% -9.5% 86% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses48 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage545d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 01 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Jan 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Dec 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? Dec 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Oct 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Trump announces the US is giving up NATO command before May? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in April? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 05 $16 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Apr 09 $5,696 −$11 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers finish with the worst regular season recor Mar 24 $18 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 22 $22 $0 -0%
Will Cale Makar win the Hart Trophy? Mar 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Mar 14 $19 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $250 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 05 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $42 30d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 61d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $52 62d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $9 90d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $22 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $30 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 120d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $22 122d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $28 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 100¢ $5 148d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $14 149d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $44 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $18 181d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $29 182d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $10 211d
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? BUY No 100¢ $52 211d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 242d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $36 243d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $7 271d
Will Solana reach $270 in September? BUY No 100¢ $13 271d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $36 272d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $25 301d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $28 301d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $16 334d
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $36 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 365d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $23 366d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 392d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.11 · official $54.11 (match) · 117 history records