Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:20:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80f7…2ed4 sports 1706 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%1698W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$8
other 48% +$11
politics 1% +$1
world 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 384 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 1% -9.3%
≤30d 1148 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1704 -0.0% -9.6% 100% 1% -9.5%
all 1704 -0.0% -9.6% 100% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 1% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1698 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1704 / 1706
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1704 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Troy Johnston: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Federico Viñas: 2+ shots on target Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Nico Williams: 3+ shots on target Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Mikel Merino: 2+ shots Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Dani Olmo: 2+ assists Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Salem Al Dawsari: 3+ goals Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Agustín Canobbio: 4+ goals + assists Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Ryan Mendes: 1+ goals + assists Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Keaton Verhoeff be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Suvanto be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wor Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Manu Koné: 1+ shots Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ryan Lin be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will Keaton Verhoeff be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draf Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Keider Montero: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-9.5) vs Yawara Esports (+9.5) Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Sadio Mané: 2+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Corner" 10+ times during the Norway vs France Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SaD Esports (-3.5) vs Team Evictix (+3.5) Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Iliman Ndiaye: 1+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Habib Diarra: 4+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Bamba Dieng: 3+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Kristian Thorstvedt: 1+ goals + assists Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ goals Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 60,200 on June 26, 4PM ET? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Lancashire - Who wins the toss? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman achieve the fastest lap in Practice 2 at the 2026 Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the Japan vs Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 20 Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Soto vs Villanueva Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Messy" during Love Island E20? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Blancaneaux/Martineau (-1.5) vs Jans/Visker (+1.5) Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Fancutt/Rai vs. Dev/Sinha: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: TES.A (-2.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+2.5) Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: KZ (-1.5) vs One Coin (+1.5) Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Arda Güler: 2+ goals + assists Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Julio César Enciso: 2+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Mo Touré: 3+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Mo Touré: 5+ shots Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Troy Johnston: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 9m
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 49m
Federico Viñas: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 53m
Nico Williams: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Mikel Merino: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Dani Olmo: 2+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Agustín Canobbio: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Ryan Mendes: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Salem Al Dawsari: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Manu Koné: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Keider Montero: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 2h
Will Oliver Suvanto be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will Keaton Verhoeff be drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wor BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will Ryan Lin be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will Keaton Verhoeff be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draf BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Sadio Mané: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-9.5) vs Yawara Esports (+9.5) BUY Keyd 99¢ $5 5h
Iliman Ndiaye: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 100¢ $5 5h
Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
Habib Diarra: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the announcers say "Corner" 10+ times during the Norway vs France BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6h
Bamba Dieng: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Kristian Thorstvedt: 1+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SaD Esports (-3.5) vs Team Evictix (+3.5) BUY SaD Esports 100¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin above 60,200 on June 26, 4PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach - Game 1 Winner BUY Toronto KOI 100¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.98 · official $4.98 (match) · 3500 history records