Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80f6…d986 sports 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$38 (-5%) realized −$35 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%84W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$24
14 days+$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$27
other 19% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -9.2% -17.9% 52% 52% -25.7%
≤30d 96 +6.5% -3.6% 64% 62% -8.3%
≤90d 150 +1.4% -8.3% 56% 55% -14.9%
all 150 +1.4% -8.3% 56% 55% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 55% -14.9%
10% -17.1% 53% -23.1%
15% -25.1% 47% -30.5%
20% -32.4% 33% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses84 / 66
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 153
History coverage38d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 26¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$2 -43%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$3 -52%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$2 -32%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -79%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +46%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +36%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$3 +93%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$2 +61%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +41%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +55%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +50%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +55%
Nordic United FC vs. Ostersunds FK: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $3 +$1 +46%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 08 $3 +$1 +42%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $3 +$2 +55%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $3 +$1 +44%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $3 +$3 +93%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $3 +$1 +34%
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $3 +$1 +34%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -99%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $3 −$2 -65%
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $3 +$1 +48%
Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $3 $0 +1%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $3 +$2 +55%
CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $3 +$2 +65%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 +$6 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 60¢ $2 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $5 21h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $3 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 22h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $3 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $5 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 27h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 27¢ $2 27h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $5 28h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $3 42h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 88¢ $7 43h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $5 45h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $3 47h
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 1¢ $0 47h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 2d
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 69¢ $3 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 14¢ $1 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $3 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $3 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 70¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.36 · official $1.23 · 278 history records