Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80f6…6eaf crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (173 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$246 (-6%) realized −$254 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate46%26W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day173.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$209
sports 37% +$68
crypto 14% −$42
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (173 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -18.0% -25.8% 46% 19% -13.7%
≤30d 57 -18.0% -25.8% 46% 19% -13.7%
≤90d 57 -18.0% -25.8% 46% 19% -13.7%
all 57 -18.0% -25.8% 46% 19% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover173.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.8% 19% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -32.9% 11% -22.0%
15% -39.4% 7% -29.5%
20% -45.3% 5% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$254
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 31
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage2d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day173.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 27 $465 +$28 +6%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 $0 +10%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3 −$1 -22%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 $0 -32%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $923 +$58 +6%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 27 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $221 +$16 +8%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 27 $4 +$3 +67%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $8 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$2 -72%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$3 -16%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +80%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7 −$3 -42%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $363 +$37 +10%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $32 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$4 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $29 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $102 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $153 −$37 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $72 +$15 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $21 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$7 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 26 $20 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $505 −$256 -51%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $75 −$21 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Atlanta Braves 100¢ $488 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 95¢ $60 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 94¢ $401 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 100¢ $421 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 95¢ $401 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 94¢ $431 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 87¢ $402 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 80¢ $129 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 74¢ $101 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 34¢ $1 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 35¢ $1 3h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL Miami Marlins 97¢ $101 3h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 98¢ $102 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 78¢ $10 3h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL Miami Marlins 92¢ $12 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Atlanta Braves 61¢ $3 3h
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 77¢ $10 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $3 3h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 68¢ $10 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.35 · official $118.35 (match) · 287 history records