Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:33:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80f2…09b5 crypto 489 markets active 9h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$61 (-1%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate53%261W / 227L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$38
14 days−$35
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$125
other 11% −$54
sports 5% +$21
politics 0% −$2
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -16.9% -24.8% 64% 23% -14.7%
≤30d 35 -12.0% -20.4% 66% 29% -13.9%
≤90d 488 -5.2% -14.2% 53% 38% -12.6%
all 488 -5.2% -14.2% 53% 38% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 38% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 31% -21.0%
15% -29.9% 25% -28.6%
20% -36.8% 19% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses261 / 227
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)488 / 489
History coverage47d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 488 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -55%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$8 -77%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $100 −$66 -66%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 −$7 -13%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $56 +$35 +64%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$11 -54%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $25 +$2 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $105 +$7 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $116 +$8 +7%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $14 +$1 +10%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 01 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 31 $9 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +34%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 25 $81 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 13 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 13 $6 −$5 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 13 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 13 $18 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 13 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 13 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 13 $4 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $6 41h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $42 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 33¢ $2 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $40 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $9 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $22 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 17¢ $2 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $3 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 95¢ $28 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 81¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 85¢ $5 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 92¢ $10 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.29 · official $2.29 (match) · 1698 history records