Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:15:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
80 0x80ed…887e crypto 198 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$66 (+2%) realized +$62 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%186W / 2L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$64
14 days+$61
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$55
politics 7% +$5
finance 2% +$2
other 2% +$1
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 +2.5% -7.3% 99% 0% -6.9%
≤30d 188 +1.9% -7.8% 99% 0% -7.5%
≤90d 188 +1.9% -7.8% 99% 0% -7.5%
all 188 +1.9% -7.8% 99% 0% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 0% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 0% -16.3%
15% -24.7% 0% -24.4%
20% -32.0% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.18 per $1 lost it wins $4.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses186 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)188 / 198
History coverage10d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 98¢ 95¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 99¢ 96¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 12h
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY No 98¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 12h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 97¢ $19 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.92 · official $194.92 (match) · 389 history records