Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:54:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80eb…e0a3 other 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%18W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$34
14 days−$36
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$38
politics 26% −$6
sports 20% −$15
world 7% −$4
crypto 6% −$4
finance 5% −$6
economics 2% $0
culture 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -2.1% -11.5% 4% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 65 -1.2% -10.6% 9% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 113 -0.7% -10.2% 14% 0% -10.0%
all 134 -0.7% -10.1% 13% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses18 / 116
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage100d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ Jun 17 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $93 −$4 -4%
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 17 $51 −$2 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $59 −$16 -27%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $37 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $136 −$3 -2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $187 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $56 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $113 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $112 −$2 -2%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $53 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $88 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 12 $65 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $80 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $154 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 10 $53 −$1 -3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $44 +$4 +10%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $63 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $103 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 05 $61 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $58 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $221 −$2 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $60 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $116 −$1 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $36 $0 -1%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $56 −$3 -5%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $29 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $205 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $55 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $532 −$4 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $50 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $54 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $64 32m
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $8 7h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 7h
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ SELL No 95¢ $52 7h
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ BUY No 97¢ $53 12h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $39 13h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $40 20h
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 93¢ $49 20h
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 96¢ $51 28h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $55 29h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $55 36h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 71¢ $43 37h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $59 44h
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $36 44h
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $37 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $18 2d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $48 2d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $48 2d
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $55 2d
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $56 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $46 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $47 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 3d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $54 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.31 · official $63.31 (match) · 462 history records