Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:38:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

80 0x80ea…bc03 crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	3	+0.2%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%
all	3	+0.2%	-9.4%	100%	0%	-9.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.4%	0%	-9.4%
10%	-18.1%	0%	-18.1%
15%	-26.0%	0%	-26.0%
20%	-33.2%	0%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 92% · top 2 97% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage

Net worth$40

Realized+$0

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage34d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	52¢	52¢	$40	$40	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21?	May 22	$1	$0	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21?	May 22	$63	$0	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?	May 21	$2	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	52¢	$41	1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2	34d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21?	BUY No	100¢	$1	34d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 21?	BUY Yes	100¢	$63	34d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.62 · official $39.62 (match) · 7 history records