Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:19:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80e9…8f88 world 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate27%20W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$11
other 20% +$1
politics 19% +$1
sports 14% −$11
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -12.5%
≤30d 23 -1.0% -10.4% 13% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 72 -0.4% -9.9% 28% 1% -9.9%
all 73 -1.8% -11.1% 27% 1% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 1% -10.3%
10% -19.6% 1% -18.8%
15% -27.4% 1% -26.7%
20% -34.5% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses20 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage485d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $26 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $61 −$6 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $63 −$2 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $34 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $53 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $75 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $68 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $87 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 22 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $76 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $72 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 18 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $1 $0 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $8 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $8 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $35 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $98 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $35 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $3 $0 +3%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will another driver finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $69 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $26 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $24 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $26 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $6 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $19 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $26 29h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $27 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $27 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $24 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $30 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $29 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $30 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $13 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $7 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $32 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $33 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $32 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $32 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.65 · official $25.65 (match) · 278 history records