Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
80 0x80e6…0804 crypto 369 markets active 22h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$74 (+1%) realized +$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate75%275W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days−$39
14 days−$17
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$15
sports 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -2.7% -12.0% 76% 52% -15.3%
≤30d 144 -3.3% -12.5% 74% 55% -11.6%
≤90d 369 -3.3% -12.5% 75% 49% -9.4%
all 369 -3.3% -12.5% 75% 49% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 49% -9.4%
10% -20.9% 31% -18.1%
15% -28.5% 16% -26.0%
20% -35.5% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses275 / 94
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)369 / 369
History coverage65d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 369 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$8 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$18 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$3 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$5 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$6 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$6 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $13 +$3 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $17 +$6 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$18 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $14 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $12 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $11 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $18 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 790 history records