Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:50:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80e3…c57f politics 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,689 (+1%) realized +$1,689 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%6W / 75L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$1,413per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$21
30 days−$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$81
other 40% −$50
economics 5% −$8
sports 2% +$1,797
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 38 -3.8% -12.9% 8% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 81 -2.0% -11.3% 7% 4% -8.2%
all 81 -2.0% -11.3% 7% 4% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 4% -8.2%
10% -19.8% 4% -17.0%
15% -27.5% 4% -25.0%
20% -34.6% 4% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$1,610) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$330 vs −$4 · ×77.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.17 per $1 lost it wins $6.17
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized+$1,689
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses6 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage77d
Avg bet$1,413
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $288 $288 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $855 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,072 −$5 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $3,763 −$4 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $903 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,609 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $833 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $804 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 04 $121 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 04 $327 +$1 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $2,058 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,293 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $733 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $3,698 −$5 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,398 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $755 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 21 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $762 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 20 $3,217 −$5 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $2,889 −$5 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $3,125 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $1,305 −$2 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners May 19 $28 +$17 +62%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $1,521 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $1,567 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $1,601 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $1,559 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $1,552 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $1,371 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $1,539 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $1,566 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $2,092 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $1,365 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $1,471 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $288 1h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $854 3d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $855 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $663 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $664 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $801 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $802 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $799 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $800 5d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $685 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $686 6d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $902 10d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $903 10d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $985 11d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $986 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $900 12d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $901 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $814 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $815 12d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $831 12d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $833 13d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $803 13d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $804 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $586 17d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $587 17d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $327 21d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $668 21d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $669 22d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $414 22d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $415 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.02 · official $288.02 (match) · 238 history records