Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80e3…de80 other 131 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%18W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$11
14 days−$20
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$24
politics 25% −$17
sports 24% +$3
crypto 7% −$6
culture 5% −$5
finance 5% +$2
economics 3% −$3
world 3% −$1
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.6% -10.1% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 68 -0.7% -10.1% 9% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 116 -0.4% -9.9% 11% 0% -9.8%
all 130 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses18 / 112
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage99d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? No 97¢ 97¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $240 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $110 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $41 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $52 −$1 -3%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 14 $120 −$1 -1%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $60 $0 -1%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $52 −$2 -4%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $49 −$3 -6%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 12 $55 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $92 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $685 −$1 -0%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 11 $45 +$4 +8%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $118 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 10 $61 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $145 −$3 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $258 −$3 -1%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $97 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 06 $47 $0 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $57 −$1 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 04 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 03 $51 $0 -1%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $29 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $112 −$2 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $96 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $129 −$2 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $47 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $97 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $67 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $100 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $267 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $54 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $49 24m
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $43 59m
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $43 8h
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $5 9h
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 20h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $49 20h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $49 27h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $50 27h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $51 34h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 35h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 41h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $63 42h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $40 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $51 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 97¢ $52 2d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $53 2d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $54 2d
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 97¢ $64 2d
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 98¢ $64 3d
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $51 3d
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $52 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $60 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $61 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.72 · official $48.72 (match) · 475 history records