Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:31:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
80 0x80e3…a65e sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$189 (+29%) realized +$190 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$167
other 3% +$20
crypto 2% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +47.7% +33.6% 69% 69% +33.1%
≤30d 16 +47.7% +33.6% 69% 69% +33.1%
≤90d 16 +47.7% +33.6% 69% 69% +33.1%
all 16 +47.7% +33.6% 69% 69% +33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.6% 69% +33.1%
10% +20.8% 69% +20.3%
15% +9.1% 69% +8.7%
20% -1.6% 69% -1.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +69% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$20 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.03 per $1 lost it wins $3.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$190
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 29
History coverage6d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 66¢ 66¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) DR Congo 65¢ 64¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Uzbekistan 55¢ 55¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$21 +208%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $81 +$76 +93%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $30 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$31 +152%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$15 +73%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $30 +$32 +105%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 +$20 +65%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$24 +79%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$20 +65%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$31 +101%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$17 +166%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Portugal (-4.5) AND Spread: En BUY 61¢ $40 43m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: England (-2.5) AND Panama vs. Croa BUY 23¢ $10 45m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 65¢ $31 57m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $30 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 32¢ $10 26h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 26h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $81 26h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score AND BUY 13¢ $10 2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score AND BUY 3¢ $10 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spain vs. BUY 19¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $20 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND BUY 16¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AN BUY 16¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $20 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $20 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $20 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19 BUY 10¢ $5 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $30 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. South BUY 14¢ $5 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $30 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. BUY 18¢ $10 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $30 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $30 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.25 · official $141.25 · 42 history records