Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80e1…47a8 weather 1484 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$502 (-3%) realized −$527 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate76%1121W / 357L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$236
7 days−$481
14 days−$475
30 days−$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$582
other 0% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +0.2% -9.3% 73% 23% -27.0%
≤30d 171 +5.5% -4.6% 78% 34% -14.3%
≤90d 908 -2.6% -11.8% 68% 53% -14.3%
all 1478 -1.8% -11.1% 76% 48% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 48% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 27% -21.3%
15% -27.4% 19% -28.9%
20% -34.5% 2% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$527
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1121 / 357
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1478 / 1484
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1478 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? No 93¢ 100¢ $49 $53 +$4 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? No 33¢ 100¢ $10 $30 +$20 (+203%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 17? No 74¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$4 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? No 76¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 17? No 38¢ 4¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 16 $58 −$55 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 17? Jun 16 $40 −$8 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $75 +$10 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$9 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 −$28 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $57 +$19 +33%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$73 +273%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $45 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $41 −$28 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $144 −$142 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $66 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 +$24 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 −$16 -54%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$41 +303%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $60 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $294 −$287 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $91 −$10 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -18%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 13? Jun 12 $37 +$16 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 3¢ $2 36m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? SELL No 6¢ $0 37m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 38¢ $4 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 61¢ $58 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $10 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 17? SELL No 65¢ $4 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 17? SELL No 66¢ $23 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 17? SELL No 72¢ $6 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $40 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 66¢ $33 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $40 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $40 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 33¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $50 11h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $75 16h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 50¢ $102 16h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $10 20h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? SELL No 39¢ $2 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $5 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 26¢ $13 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $40 29h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 74¢ $25 32h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 19¢ $13 33h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $50 35h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 55¢ $41 35h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 26¢ $27 39h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $25 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $18 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.80 · official $138.80 (match) · 3500 history records