Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
80 0x80e0…c3c4 crypto 1715 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5,137 (+12%) realized +$5,137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%1651W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day51.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 333 -0.7% -10.1% 96% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 1501 -0.5% -10.0% 96% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 1715 +0.0% -9.5% 96% 0% -9.8%
all 1715 +0.0% -9.5% 96% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$25 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$5,137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1651 / 64
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1715 / 1715
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day51.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1715 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $303 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.00 · official $15.00 (match) · 3500 history records